| The prediction of Covid-19 first peak using SIR+ model |
| کد مقاله : 1003-CSANS2022 |
| نویسندگان: |
|
Zahra Farahi1، علی کمندی *2 1Azadi 2School of Engineering Science, Collage of Engineering, University of Tehran |
| چکیده مقاله: |
| Based on reports of W.H.O organization, the contagious infectious diseases are in the list of top 10 threads to the human health. Every year these potentially catastrophic diseases, cause painful grief for human and affect their life, disease such as SARS, Ebola, influenza and many more contagious diseases. This is why controlling the spreading of epidemics is important, especially in the first stage of the epidemic. One of the most effective efforts for preventing the pandemics is modeling their spread. By modeling, the governor can decide when and where, they have to imply preventing policies. Recently a new epidemic has spread around the world named novel coronavirus or COVID-19, which has infected millions of people around the world. In this paper we aim to propose a model which predicts the first peak of the spread of COVID-19 with high accuracy. Since the first stages of epidemic spreading is important not only from a theoretical point of view but also from a practical point of view, we start the research by predicting the first peak of this epidemic. In some cases predicts the infected case with R^2>90% . This model is a great help for governments, organization, institution who make decision and plan for controlling the epidemic. |
| کلیدواژه ها: |
| spreading phenomenon, epidemic, SIR model, Covid-19 |
| وضعیت : مقاله برای ارائه شفاهی پذیرفته شده است |
